Updated AGI prediction chart with all the latest info…

Integrated the OpenAI “Stages of AI” levels into the chart to provide a more interesting and detailed projection to the timeline. As noted previously, the “level 2” threshold lines up exactly where OpenAI execs are mentioning in the press that GPT5 will be released. Also of note, if you extrapolate the expected score (GPQA diamond) of Claude 3.5 Opus, it to would fall right near the existing trend-line being released either late this year or early 2025.

Also of note, though not listed on the graph yet due to its impending release is Llama 3 400b. That model already has been reported with a GPQA score of 48 for the prerelease version of the model, and the final release version likely cracking the significant level of “50”. This would be the first major open source model to reach the “chatbot” stage as defined by OpenAI, matching the performance of Claude 3 Opus which was released just over a year prior. This also would reestablish the existing timeline trend of closed-source to open-source model releases at the same capability level.

I’ll keep updating the chart as new foundation models are released. 🫡